Are Punxsutawney Groundhog Forecasts Accurate? | Digital Trends Spanish



Tradition says that every February 2, a groundhog predicts how long the winter will last in a ceremony that involves whether or not the animal sees its shadow. The ceremony is anecdotal to say the least, especially if it is the first time it is seen. A group of men in tuxedos and top hats pick up a marmot, show it a scroll, and even hold it a microphone. And eThis year, the groundhog Phil saw his shadow foreshadowing that winter will last six more weeks. The forecast lacks the minimum scientific support, but we are talking about a tradition that dates back from the 19th century (the first prediction was recorded in 1887) so, needless to say, it is more than ingrained among the members of the Punxsutawney community, a small town in Pennsylvania.

But how accurate are the Punxsutawney Groundhog Day forecasts?

The Stormfax Almanac It keeps track of each of the predictions made since 1887, and according to these data, the groundhogs named Phil have only been right 39 percent of the time. And since 1969, when the accuracy of meteorological records is less questionable according to statements by meteorologist Tim Roche to the portal Live Science, Phil’s accuracy drops to 36 percent.

By detailing the data, it is observed that Phil has a better precision index when he does not see his shadow. “Of the 15 times he missed his shadow and predicted an early spring, he was right seven times, an accuracy rate of 47 percent,” says the meteorologist.

Phil’s numbers aren’t exactly remarkable, especially when compared to the accuracy rate of weather forecasts based on scientific observations. David Unger of the U.S. National Weather Service says the forecasts are 60 percent accurate.

Let no one lose sight of the fact that Phil is just a groundhog.

Editor’s Recommendations




var stage = 0; var options = {"dt:content-modules":{"wizard_icon_url":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/plugins/dt-content-modules/assets/images//wizard.png"},"dt:theme":{"assets":{"js_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/digitaltrends-es-2018/assets/scripts","js_path":"/usr/src/app/wp-content/themes/digitaltrends-es-2018/assets/scripts","parent_js_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/dt-stardust/assets/scripts","parent_js_path":"/usr/src/app/wp-content/themes/dt-stardust/assets/scripts","css_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/digitaltrends-es-2018/assets/styles","css_path":"/usr/src/app/wp-content/themes/digitaltrends-es-2018/assets/styles","parent_css_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/dt-stardust/assets/styles","image_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/digitaltrends-es-2018/assets/images","parent_image_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/dt-stardust/assets/images","font_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/digitaltrends-es-2018/assets/fonts","parent_font_uri":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/digitaltrends-es-2018/assets/fonts","plugin_dir":"/usr/src/app/wp-content/plugins","mu_plugin_dir":"/usr/src/app/wp-content/mu-plugins","vip_client_mu_plugin_dir":"/usr/src/app/wp-content/client-mu-plugins","global_assets_path":"/usr/src/app/wp-content/themes/globalAssets/"},"tos_url":null,"pp_url":null},"dt:snowplow":{"session_context_schema":"iglu:com.digitaltrends/session/jsonschema/1-0-2","ad_settings_context_schema":"iglu:com.digitaltrends/ads/jsonschema/1-0-0","content_cookie":"dtContent","content_context_schema":"iglu:com.digitaltrends/content/jsonschema/1-0-1"},"facebook":{"facebook:app:id":"803626527068006","facebook:channel_url":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/fb-channel.php","facebook:page:id":"digitaltrendsenespanol","jssdk-src":"//connect.facebook.net/es_LA/all.js"},"twitter":{"handle":"DigitalTrendsEs"},"debug":{"dt_suppress_from_topics_filter_applied":false,"dt_suppress_from_topics_new_version":true,"pp_context":"discovery","pp_native_topic":false,"pp_page":1,"pp_batch":"50"},"dt:cc":{"cc_tracking":{"amazon":{"params":{"tag":"dt-es-20"},"click_id":"ascsubtag","patterns":["http[s]?://(www\.)?amazon\.com(\.mx)?/.*","http[s]?://(www\.)?amazon\.es/.*","http[s]?://amzn\.to/.*","http[s]?://amzn\.com/.*","http[s]?://a\.co/.*"]},"apple":{"params":[],"patterns":["http[s]?://apple\.sjv\.io/.*"]},"avantlink":{"params":[],"click_id":"ctc","patterns":["http[s]?://(www\.)?avantlink\.com/.*"]},"awin":{"params":[],"click_id":"clickref","patterns":["http[s]?://www\.awin1\.com/.*"]},"cj-affiliate":{"params":[],"click_id":"sid","patterns":["http[s]?://www\.anrdoezrs\.net","http[s]?://anrdoezrs\.net","http[s]?://commission\-junction\.com","http[s]?://dpbolvw\.net","http[s]?://apmebf\.com","http[s]?://jdoqocy\.com","http[s]?://kqzyfj\.com","http[s]?://qksrv\.net","http[s]?://tkqlhce\.com","http[s]?://qksz\.net","http[s]?://emjcd\.com","http[s]?://afcyhf\.com","http[s]?://awltovhc\.com","http[s]?://ftjcfx\.com","http[s]?://lduhtrp\.net","http[s]?://tqlkg\.com","http[s]?://awxibrm\.co","http[s]?://cualbr\.com","http[s]?://rnsfpw\.net","http[s]?://vofzpwh\.com","http[s]?://yceml\.net"],"path_regex_replace":{"pattern":"(http[s]?)(.*)(http[s]?)(.*)([?|&]sid=)(.*)","replacement":"$1$2sid/$6/$3$4","required_url_part":"/dlg/"}},"cloudcity_adapter":{"params":[],"click_id":"subid1","disable_tracking":true,"patterns":["http[s]?://ccp\.digitaltrends\.com/go/ccp/?.*","http[s]?://cc-stage\.isvc\.tech/go/ccp/?.*"]},"connexity_sylikes":{"params":[],"click_id":"afCampaignId","patterns":["http[s]?://link\.sylikes\.com/.*"]},"connexity_bizrate":{"params":[],"click_id":"af_campaign_id","patterns":["http[s]?://rd\.bizrate\.com/.*"]},"ebay":{"params":[],"patterns":["http[s]?://rover\.ebay\.com/.*"]},"flex-offers":{"params":[],"patterns":["http[s]?://track\.flexlinkspro\.com/.*"]},"impact-radius":{"params":[],"click_id":"subid1","patterns":["http[s]?://99designs\.qvig\.net","http[s]?://acehardware\.dttq\.net","http[s]?://adidas\.njih\.net","http[s]?://adorama\.rfvk\.net","http[s]?://airbnb\.vaz6fn\.net","http[s]?://allenedmonds\.ojrq\.net","http[s]?://apple\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://appsumo\.8odi\.net","http[s]?://atom\-tickets\.pxf\.io","http[s]?://avocadomattress\.n5ka\.net","http[s]?://backcountry\.tnu8\.net","http[s]?://belkin\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://bestbuy\.7tiv\.net","http[s]?://bigcommerce\.zfrcsk\.net","http[s]?://birch\.fziv\.net","http[s]?://blue\-apron\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://blueapron\.i3zp\.net","http[s]?://bombfell\.l9yg\.net","http[s]?://burstoralcare\.bts6\.net","http[s]?://case\-mate\.kxyi\.net","http[s]?://casemate\.kxyi\.net","http[s]?://casetify\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://casetify\.hyyc7q\.net","http[s]?://casper\.5ad6\.net","http[s]?://cbs\-allaccess\.qflm\.net","http[s]?://cbsallaccess\.qflm\.net","http[s]?://cocoavia\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://codespark\.j4ib\.net","http[s]?://coinbase\-consumer\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://constant\-contact\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://constant\-contact\.ibfwsl\.net","http[s]?://cratejoy\.jgpt48\.net","http[s]?://creditkarma\.myi4\.net","http[s]?://cyberghost\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://designer\-living\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://dicks\-sporting\-goods\.ryvx\.net","http[s]?://disneyplus\.bn5x\.net","http[s]?://door\-dash\.5vju\.net","http[s]?://dreamcloudsleep\.xuok\.net","http[s]?://drip\.pxf\.io","http[s]?://eddie\-bauer\-us\.ygwk\.net","http[s]?://eddiebauerus\.ygwk\.net","http[s]?://eight\-sleep\.ioym\.net","http[s]?://espn\.zlbu\.net","http[s]?://fanatics\.ncw6\.net","http[s]?://felixgray\.ntaf\.net","http[s]?://flaviar\.5d3x\.net","http[s]?://freshdirect\.bpu9\.net","http[s]?://getcairn\.w9v5\.net","http[s]?://getquip\.d67ag4\.net","http[s]?://gettyimages\.68w6\.net","http[s]?://glassesusa\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://go\.corsair\.com","http[s]?://go\.web\.plus\.espn\.com","http[s]?://gobble\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://goto\.target\.com","http[s]?://goto\.walmart\.com","http[s]?://gotomeeting\.zvbf\.net","http[s]?://grasshopper\.o9o4\.net","http[s]?://grenco\-science\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://harrys\.3tvl\.net","http[s]?://helix\-sleep\.tkjf\.net","http[s]?://homedepot\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://hotspotshield\.bvrd\.net","http[s]?://house\.r2oa\.net","http[s]?://intego\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://istockphoto\.6q33\.net","http[s]?://kohls\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://leesa\-sleep\.lvuv\.net","http[s]?://leesasleep\.lvuv\.net","http[s]?://lending\-club\-smb\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://lenovo\.vzew\.net","http[s]?://letsgetchecked\.7no9\.net","http[s]?://levelsleep\.xuvt\.net","http[s]?://linkto\.hrblock\.com","http[s]?://lootcrate\.znvt\.net","http[s]?://lorex\-flir\.obak77\.net","http[s]?://lorex\-flir\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://lumin\.7w7o67\.net","http[s]?://macpaw\.audw\.net","http[s]?://mancrates\.ln72\.net","http[s]?://manscaped\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://massdrop\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://mcafee\-consumer\-affiliate\.mpye\.net","http[s]?://mgemi\.pxf\.io","http[s]?://microsoft\.msafflnk\.net","http[s]?://mint\-mobile\.58dp\.net","http[s]?://mvmt\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://nakedwines\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://nautilus\.atkw\.net","http[s]?://nectar\.xovt\.net","http[s]?://nixon\.wkq9\.net","http[s]?://noom\.8utb\.net","http[s]?://nordvpn\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://onemore\.pxf\.io","http[s]?://ooma\.vqi8\.net","http[s]?://packsproject\.33qw\.net","http[s]?://partners\.alamo\.com","http[s]?://partners\.enterprise\.com","http[s]?://partners\.hotwire\.com","http[s]?://photoscom\.pxf\.io","http[s]?://purple\.e9jo\.net","http[s]?://qustodio\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://razer\.a9yw\.net","http[s]?://scentbird\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://scotchporter\.5l5h\.net","http[s]?://sentrypc\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://setapp\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://shipt\.58mq\.net","http[s]?://shutterstock\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://smarthome\.4hyab9\.net","http[s]?://sportsline\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://spot\-and\-tango\.i5md\.net","http[s]?://squarespace\.syuh\.net","http[s]?://summitsoft\.evyy\.net","http[s]?://sunsoil\.mzte\.net","http[s]?://thehomedepotca\.2t23\.net","http[s]?://thumbtack\.57ib\.net","http[s]?://treehouse\.7eer\.net","http[s]?://tuftandneedle\.attfm2\.net","http[s]?://ultimate\-ears\.dubn\.net","http[s]?://untuckit\.9znn\.net","http[s]?://wismo\.sjv\.io","http[s]?://www\.fubo\.tv","http[s]?://xfinity\.ulvh\.net","http[s]?://yaasa\.cw3o\.net","http[s]?://ziprecruiter\.fdcm73\.net"]},"pepperjam":{"params":[],"patterns":["http[s]?://(www\.)?pntrs\.com/.*","http[s]?://(www\.)?pntrac\.com/.*","http[s]?://(www\.)?pntra\.com/.*","http[s]?://(www\.)?gopjn\.com/.*","http[s]?://(www\.)?pjatr\.com/.*","http[s]?://(www\.)?pjtra\.com/.*"]},"rakuten":{"params":[],"click_id":"u1","patterns":["http[s]?://click\.linksynergy\.com/.*","http[s]?://linksynergy\.[^\.]+\.com/.*"]},"shareasale":{"params":[],"click_id":"afftrack","patterns":["http[s]?://(www\.)?shareasale\.com/.*"]},"skimlinks":{"params":{"xs":1},"click_id":"xcust","patterns":["http[s]?://(www\.)?fav\.co/.*","http[s]?://go\.skimresources\.com"]}},"cc_targeting":{"publisher_id":"dt","sites":"dtes","articles":784626,"articleCategories":["noticias","tendencias"],"articleType":"news","enable_permutive":0},"cc_opts":{"apiKey":null,"environment":"production"},"cc_response_timeout":5000,"merchant_order":[],"default_network_order":["amazon"],"post_products":[],"best_of_product_layout":false},"dt:dot_digital":{"options":{"wrapper_class":"dtdd-signup-form-wrapper","script_attributes":[],"injection_allowed":false}},"dtimage":{"snap_widths":[80,120,145,170,222,248,300,345,375,382,416,610,768,920,1200,1230],"base_url":"https://img.digitaltrends.com/image/digitaltrends_es/"},"dt:internal-links":{"enabled":false,"suppressed":false,"eligible":true,"paragraph_offset":2,"minimum_link_count":10,"minimum_post_age":7,"internal_link_count":1,"post_age":0,"category_eligibility_modes":"exclude","eligible_categories":[],"article_type_eligibility_mode":"exclude","eligible_article_types":[]},"dtvideos":{"kill_ads":false,"jwplayer_player_id":"Nh80yRhJ","jwplayer_discovery_id":"FNczomsZ","jwplayer_ad_schedule_id":"a748gnw8","ias_an_id":"927851","ads_tag":"https://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?sz=970x556&iu=/5611/dtmn.video/es_dt_ros&ciu_szs&impl=s&gdfp_req=1&env=vp&output=xml_vast3&unviewed_position_start=1&url=__page-url__&description_url=__domain__&correlator=__random-number__&cmsid=2860&vid=__item-mediaid__","ads_spotx_wrapper":"https://search.spotxchange.com/vast/2.0/207447?VPAID=JS&content_page_url=__page-url__&ad_server[type]=DFP&ad_server[tag]=","prioritize_engagement":true,"default_video_provider":"jwplayer","ad_targeting_params":{"tags":["dia-de-la-marmota","pensilvania","pronostico-del-tiempo","pronosticos","punxsutawney"],"cat":["noticias","tendencias"],"supports":["skin"],"aid":784626},"brightcove_account_id":"5425749915001","brightcove_player_id":"1K3Vgqvjy","discovery_id":"5719629958001"},"dt:ads":{"inject-ads":true},"habu":{"id":"a138e4b5-5179-4df7-8677-4d888d432aff"},"qnqb92BhrzmkpqGx":{"post_sharing_data":{"object_id":784626,"taxonomy":"","url":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/noticias/marmota-phil-punxsutawney-pensilvania-que-tan-precisas-son-sus-predicciones/","summary":"u00bfQuu00e9 tan precisos son los pronu00f3sticos de la marmota Phil de Punxsutawney?","title":"u00bfSon precisos los pronu00f3sticos de la marmota de Punxsutawney?","image":"https://icdn2.digitaltrends.com/image/digitaltrends_es/punxsutawney_phil_2018.jpg","twitter_text":"u00bfSon precisos los pronu00f3sticos de la marmota de Punxsutawney?","twitter_hash_tags":""}},"dt:utm":{"style_settings":{"medium":"cpc","size":false}},"global":{"ajaxurl":"https://es.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/themes/dt-stardust/ajax-actions.php","home":"https://es.digitaltrends.com"},"doubleclick":{"prog_utm_contents":["progua"],"id":"/5611/dt.espanol","demo_id":"/5611/dt.dgt.test","prog_id":"/5611/prog.dtes","video_id":"/5611/dtmn.video/es_dt_ros"},"dt:gl":{"discovery_placements_enabled":"true","sub_nav:all_list_ids":[],"sub_nav:list_data":[]}}; var allOptions = {};

if (stage > 0 && window.DTOptions) { allOptions = window.DTOptions.getAll();

Object.keys(options).forEach(function(groupK) { if (options[groupK] && typeof options[groupK] === 'object') { Object.keys(options[groupK]).forEach(function(k) { if (!allOptions[groupK] || typeof allOptions[groupK] !== 'object') { allOptions[groupK] = {}; }

allOptions[groupK][k] = options[groupK][k]; }); } }); } else { allOptions = options; }

var getAll = function () { return allOptions; };

var get = function (key, group, def) { key = key || ''; group = group || 'qnqb92BhrzmkpqGx'; def = (typeof def !== 'undefined') ? def : null;

if (typeof allOptions[group] !== 'undefined') { if (key && typeof allOptions[group][key] !== 'undefined') { return allOptions[group][key]; } }

return def; };

var set = function (key, group, data) { key = key || ''; group = group || 'qnqb92BhrzmkpqGx'; data = data || null;

if (key) { if (typeof allOptions[group] === 'undefined') { allOptions[group] = {}; }

allOptions[group][key] = data; } };

var del = function (key, group) { key = key || ''; group = group || 'qnqb92BhrzmkpqGx';

if (typeof allOptions[group] !== 'undefined') { if (key && typeof allOptions[group][key] !== 'undefined') { allOptions[group][key] = null; } } };

window.DTOptions = { get: get, getAll: getAll, set: set, del: del, }; }());